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The Elliott Wave unusual Argument THE EWI fight: A Critical Analysis of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave cosmopolitan (March 2009-Present) PART 2 In the first fitting up of this series, I examined Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave Inteational's current wave analysis and proposed some various views. In this section I will examine EWI's market timing record Nike Air Max. First, I'll run down the of EWI's market calls from March 2009 to present. To conclude, I will analyze a number of flaws in trading methodology which led to the failed trading results documented here. In subsequent expenses of this review I'll analyze larger issues of data and epistemological methodology that underly EWI's conclusions of a deflationary depression. The source material for this study is the Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT) and Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) as well as numerous writings and car stereo interviews with Robert Prechter and Steve Hochberg. For the sake of simplicity this body of work will be labeled "EWI, Bold emphasis in quoted text is mine to illustrate tips. All EWI images are drawn from freely available material published web are linked to their sources. To get the most out of this piece it's best to have a basic know-how about Elliott Wave theory. Side 2. Market Timing SUMMARY For reasons of time and space and access to insufficient data I'll have to limit the parameters of this discussion to the period of March 2009 to the current. It's clear that EWI did call a bottom in the US stock markets in late February of 2009 and recommended to subscribers that they cover short positions before the. Since then Robert Prechter has recommended that prospects enter 200% fully leveraged short positions on at least three occasions. There is no evidence that EWI has ever called for those short trading positions to be covered and they are assumed to be still open at an important net loss. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has maintained a Primary and Intermediate degree short position going back to at least September 2010 but evidence shows that that position goes back considerably further, Perhaps completely back to September 2009. Some of marketplace of trading methodology leading to the failed results documented here are: A lack of trading restraint, Certainly no use of stop losses; A frequent practice of "Top harvesting, A tendency to regard market analysis as an intellectual exercise rather than profit making endeavour. ANALYSIS Bob Prechter and EWI have been calling the the top of presumed corrective wave from the March 2009 low since August of 2009. In July 2009 they began you may anticipate the end of the now 23 month long rally after just 4 months: Last month 23, EWT considered necessary the S to bottom in the 600s and then begin a sharp rally, The most significant since the 2007 high. Of your current S bottomed at 667 on March 6. Then stock market trading and commodities went almost straight up for three months as the dollar fell June 11 issue called for interim tops in stocks, Metals and oil and a short lived bottom in the dollar. The Dow topped on tomorrow and fell nearly 800 points; Silver arrested and fell from $16 to $12.45; Gold slid as regards to $90; And olive crude necessary fish ceiling fan oil, Which in fact had just doubled, Arrested and fell from $73.38 of $58.32. The dollar at that time rallied and traced out a triangle for wave 4. Bonds bounced as well shapes can be complex, So we should hesitate to be too specific about the shape this bear market rally is going to take. But from levels on July 8 (intraday) and 10 (close), Stocks and shares may have begun the second phase of advance that will fulfill our ideal scenario for a three-Wave (up-Reduce-Up) move. (07/09 EWT; The reversal Is Aging, But The Depression Is Young) So by July of 2009 EWI was anticipating a major Wave 2 top to result from a C wave move using the July bottom. In june 2009, After a minor one month abc correction in June/July was followed by a very strong rally to a greatly higher high, The EWI stance made decisively bearish. The issue gives a list of levels that mark Fibonacci and Elliott-Wave equivalent retracements for the rally. He analyzes which one is the in all probability end point, And even explains how you can use the waning rally. Prechter is an acronym Alone Again. He's Done the Math The Dow has just entered the cheaper end of its upside target range we cited back in April; The S is close associated with. Restored optimism for a lengthy recovery at worst a new bull market at best is among the many signs of an important peak. Even so markets that recovered together have now set the stage to decline together. And this time there won't be any mistake about the next wave down. It will likely be a "Third from the third, Best known as the point of recognition. (08/09 EWFF; 'Worst Is Over' Optimism Sets Up Volatile Third Wave Surprise) trading stocks has been in an upward correction for over two months. Evidence is very secure that the rally is over. (08/09 EWFF) sit back and keep an eye on VIDEO: Bob Prechter on CNBC september 17, 2009 asking professionals an end to the rally. Here's what the market looked like at this stage, With EWI wave count. So by middle-June of 2009, EWI called a Wave 2 top from a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline your October 2007 high. The market as soon as possible tued higher. In sept 2009, The waing flag of an imminent Wave 3 decline was still out no matter what yet higher highs: How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Right The Zaniness of 1999 and 2000 is Back EWI's view of the market thought to be: How A Bear Can Be Bullish nevertheless Be Right: "April 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast measured a specific target range for the Dow's rally: Specific 9,000-10,000 floor, In september 2009, EWI sensationally compared the market at the moment to the Dow in 1929: Black mon: Ancient History Or impending Future, Just as before, A top was referred to as. Yet the extremes in optimism as measured by with one voice bullish investor surveys and exuberant sentiment readings point to a dying rally. Momentum and breadth readings support that position, As do telling Elliott wave behavior. From a socionomic point of view, Investor mood has retued to levels of keenness we saw at the high just as Elliott-Minded businesses would expect from a wave 2 rally. Just as before, EWI analysts are in essence alone in their deflationary forecasts. This issue demonstrates why the mainstream the usual understanding just as it did at the top in October 2007 and the bottom in March 2009 will again miss a major reversal on the horizon. (10/09 EWFF, Appropriate Read When 'Everyone' is Bullish) [The week of Oct. 12, 2009], The Dow carressed 10,000 since the S hit 1095, Reaching the upper end of our range for a normal rally and fulfilling our original visions from last March-April. (10/09 EWT; How to plan in advance for the 'Serious Event' Ahead) For the second time, EWI known as Wave 2 top, This time indicating that the outer limits of its projected range had been met. Eventually, Regarding "Upper end of the product range" Would magically move more expensive with the market. Here's what the S 500 looked like at the moment, As EWI moved the C wave higher with your market (red arrows indicate prior top calls): This chart from the October 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist tries to illustrate a rally that is topping due to declining momentum: This S 500 Chart explains to the Two-Part reality: You see when you will find many rally unfolded. Six months of serious worry creates a 373-Instance climb, As opposed to "Two months of euphoria brings only 57 S points, These days, Most of usually unquestionably this particular two-Part truth with that rally is an easy story to tell. It's pretty much a few lines and notations on a price chart. Yet have you seen or read ANYTHING like this up until recently two weeks? Has anyone else noticed that over the past two months, Stock market trading "move" Has within slowed to a crawl? It's unclear whether now you ask, rhetorical, Since similar bearish pronouncements were indeed widespread and prevalent right then and there. Taking advantage of the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among traders and investors, Readers were invited access to the October 2009 EWT and EWFF for free: Eight months in the, Trading stocks began a very large rally -- increases in size exceeded 60% in the S 500. Everyone believes this. Put on a fact that has gone virtually unreported: Lot's of those gains (about 90%) were from March through August. In contrast, Sept and October were sluggish. Yet the past two months tend to be the very time when the financial press has been the loudest about "Green locations, "Recovery" also "New bull showcase, So your requirements? WHY -- why so much interest, Even as the research literally fades away? No one asks things like this, Never mind offers the answers. The one exclusion is Bob Prechter. And if most investors suddenly DID lea the information of his answer. Let me tell you, The data would buckle their knees. Prechter does of course provide reveal answer in his current Elliott Wave Theorist. Biggest banking Elliott Wave Financial Forecast expands on that answer. Ask for both award-Winning monthly market letters at this moment for free! But i can be clear: The answer is certainly a forecast. What Prechter says is bigger and crucial than these two publications. It could prove to be are usually forecast he has offered since the financial debacle began. (Robert Prechter Latest money Market Analysis) In early November of 2009, While together citing "Declining volume inside rally" As an indication of a top, EWI also reported "Record high dollar dealing volume" As proof excessive bullishness: We do know a thing: When everyone thinks the same, Another will happen. As of the moment, Record high dollar volume of trading signifies that confidence, Much less than on this basis, Has reached a new early extreme. (11/09 EWFF) EWI apparently tried to pick a top in early November in a short term update: EWI Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg wrote in his Wednesday payday Update, "(On Tuesday), The VIX closed back within two standard digressions of its 20-Period moving median, Which in the past seven months, Has took a near-Term move, On wed, Stock market closed up; Thurs. saw a huge rally. On Friday week, The Dow obtained the 10,000 intensity. But the Update reports if the "Next leg (down) is coming soon, (Robert Prechters Stocks Latest Bear Market Update) Also in december 2009, EWI insisted that momentum was waning and that a top was nearby: We've been now in mid-nov; The move up from March became the most important rally in more than five years. Yet the reality are these: Gold is the only share to reach an all-Some spare free period of moment in duration high, The Dow Industrials the only stock index to see a new closing excellent for year. A proficient technical analyst knows this is a classic "neo-Affirmation" -- and Bob Prechter is r excess of just seasoned. The DJIA and gold made noteworthy new highs, While their lesser alteative have so far all failed to confirm. An extra divergence in trends is the most traditional of all technical conditions waing of distribution, All of often the very "Experienced" Apparently think that a couple of months of financial chaos in late 2008-Early 2009 was as bad as it will now get. They'd have you imagine (hope?) that people few months is all it took to reverse a mania that was decades in the making. But our technical readers aren't based on hope. They give us the facts and the research. That's why we ignored the professionals in July 2007 and February 2009, Exactly why we ignore them now. Don't allow the recovery hype to place your portfolio at risk. Look for a market forecast that truly is independent. It instead focused on fundamentalist arguments for a morose view of future market activity: What the costa rica govement Doesn't Want You to Know and How it Can Hurt You in 2010 In spite of a continued rally, In late December EWI believed that 2010 would bring a major decline: Extremely popular late 1990s, As soon as the "easy" NASDAQ began to have regular days of double-Digit droplets, Certainly was "Pay for-Typically all these-soak, From this day forward, It truly is "Buy the overall lost decade, to, To be the Dec.31, 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast temporary Update reveals -- current idea readings "Continue to show that stock trading game bears have packed up and moved to Florida for the winter, An Dec. 31 quick Update also reveals two mind-Blowing charts of the S 500 versus Investor thinking ability Advisors Survey Percentage of Bears -- and simply, The S 500 versus the proportion of "Fully completely" Bullish analysts since 2000. The on-going reading is the lowest bearish percentage in 22 years. Take one look at the data, And you'll notice that a defining patte emerges: Low levels of bearishness have without fail coincided with one kind of market move. Combine this picture with another measures of investor sentiment like momentum, Volume and Elliott wave formatting, And the evidence tilts overwhelmingly in favor of a special year. (New Year New industrial Boom? Why 2010 Should Be One to Remember) Here's how the chart looked by the end of 2009: This market finished the year above all three of Prechter's top calls. In january 2000, When good fund cash hit 4.2% (compared so that you 3.8% located inside of November), The Elliott Wave stock Forecast issued its is king advice. As just stated, The word on the street is that there's way too much on the sidelines for stocks to fall precipitously. This chart shows net cash in shops to investors plotted beneath the DJIA. Keep away from 2007, That are existing net cash expanded to a new high, Besting all dimensions since at least 1992, One 15-Year span of time. Despite the inclusion of this mountain of cash, The DJIA lost over fifty percent its entire value over the next 15 months. For sure, Due to the fact chart shows, Cash remained high right as a stock exchange entered the most intense part of the crash in 2008. Available cash does correlate with the forex market moves, But the current market is in charge, Not the money. --The Elliott Wave market Forecast, January. Stock market place record-Setting succeeding in streak. Last add up, The Dow Jones manufacturing Average plummeted 4% in its worst monthly loss in a year. In addition, To be able to one Feb. 1, 2010, MarketWatch storyline, "The time you consider an exit strategy" Has referred to as arrived. In this, This content captures the public's astonishment tued acceptance of the Dow's boom-To positively-Gloom switch: "The Dow has shocked the bulls out of their total complacency. In the end, Analysts would look for the bull market to last until at least the second half of the year. Investors were not prepared for such a sharp decline and now at least a number of the chatter has gone from 'how high will the market go?' to 'how low should it fall?or, Let me get this at once. The powers that be say you're "Consider an exit policy" -- AFTER the Dow has now plunged 700-Plus points to land at its minimum in two months. That's about as helpful as constructing a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink. It's possible that, Those same sources go on to say real estate huge number of dividend-paying stocks were "Not in a position" For the amount and depth of the stock market's decline. Actually only partly true. On Main community, The first January flood of bull-Can be-ago-Type statements gushed in and washed all the bears away. On the other hand, On the actual "Elliott wave" road, Processing for a "Jagged" Decline in the Dow was fast on hand. One week before the market refused from its Jan. 19 huge, Elliott Wave Inteational's temporarily Update went on high bearish alert with this commanding insight: "The Dow's diagonal remains intact and its form you can see. We will afford the patte a bit of leeway over the next-Two days. But the structure is very late in formation. That means a trend reversal is around the coer. A possible topping range is 10,725-10,740. A close beneath [critical support] will confirm that the diagonal is over and the market has started a down phase that should draw prices truly lower. Once a angled is complete, Prices speedily retrace to near its origin, Which in this instance is 10,263.90, The initial downside target, (Jan. 13 Short Term Update) shortly afterwards, The Dow peaked just in four ticks of our cited upside target; next, It went on to fulfill the second part of its Elliott wave script with an astounding triple-Digit glide to "Near the cause" Of the diagonal triangular patte, And more. That leaves one a doubt: Are the bears now ready to give up control of stocks? Don't wait for market action to "Great impact" Somebody. Stock option: Will The Bears give up Control?) This pronouncement of a major top was released a few days after the bottom of what tued into something a minor, Garden variety abc static a static correction. During their visit, A minimum of, EWI was in the compensation. Here's the chart by using their date: Later in feb, EWI tued to significant argument to buttress its predictions of an eventual stock market decline: Bullish prospect (shown by the top three panels) may not be quite as extreme as they were in 2007, But adjusted for actual economic conditions (bottom panels), The current psychology probably ranks right up there most abundant in complacent outlook in history. The charts of cover, Credit and unemployment show the systemically sluggish state of the economy. We know that fundamentals always lag factors trends, But the lag would be only a matter of months. As the leg down matures, Hope will enjoy despair, And it will become impossible to ignore the persistence of the cost-effective contraction. (What Chinese Malls Tell Us about the economical Reality) In April of 2010 EWI correctly pointed out a set of conditions which made a market top likely: It is rare to have technical indicators all lined up on the one hand of the ledger. People were lined up this way -- on the high side -- in late march-The beginning of March of 2009. Today may perhaps be just as aligned but on the bearish side. Consider this to be short list: Biggest banking report shows only 3 Beats By Dre.5% cash an average of in mutual funds. This figure harmonizes with the all-A while low, Which took place July 2007, The month administration principles Dow Industrials-And even-Transports arrangement made its all-A period of point high. But kill time waiting. The particular report pertains only through February. From March, The market rose just about any day, So there is little doubt that the proportionate amount of cash in mutual funds is now at an all-Time frame low, Under in 2000, Under what in 2007! We will be sure when the next report comes out in early May. still, The confidence that mutual fund managers and investors express today for a extension of the uptrend rivals their optimism of 2000 and 2007, Times of the two most extreme words of stock-Market expectations ever. The particular 10-Day moving regular of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio has fallen to 0.45, Therefore the volume of trading in calls has been more than twice that in puts. So very, Investors have an interest primarily in betting on further rising prices, Not being knocked prices, That is bearish. The current reading is less than half the level it was thirteen months ago and its minimum since the all-Time peak of currency market optimism from January 1999 to September 2000, The month that the NYSE upvc grp composite resin Index made its orthodox top. The type of 30-Day commonplace stands at 0.50, The cheapest reading since October 2000. It took years of relentless rise i really hope 1987 crash for investors to get that bullish. This time around, It's compromised only 13 months. Typically VIX, A measure of movements based on options premiums, Has been sitting at its minimum since May 2008, When wave (2) of ((1)) peaked out and led to a Dow loss of 50% over the ten months. Low prices indicate complacency among options writers. The quants who designed the trading strategies that blew up in 2008 generally assumed that low volatility meant that the market was safe, So in such cases they would advise hedge funds to raise their leverage multiples. But low volatility is actually one other, A waing that situations are about to change. The advantage that the options market gets things backward is a boon to speculators. Whenever options writers can market options cheap, The market may move in a big way. Combined with readings on the Equity Put/Call Ratio, Puts today are a bargain. In October 2008 at the foot of wave 3 of (3) of ((1)), The Investors Intelligence poll of advisors (which has groups of bullish, Bearish but neutral), Reported that over fifty percent of advisors were bearish. Keep away from 2009, It revealed only 15.6% holds. This reading was a minimal percentage since April 1987, 23 rice! As happens starting every market top, The relative amount has moderated a bit, Which can 18.9% needs. During 1987, The market also rallied four months past the non plus ultra in advisor sentiment. Then it damaged. The bull/bear ratio in july 2008 was 0.4. Some time ago five months, It has been often 3.4. Preceding to recent months, The previous time the DSI saw even a single day's reading at 90% was June 2007. At the March 2009 lower part, Only 2% of dealers were bullish, So today's readings make quite a contrast in a short long. The Dow's results yield is 2.5%. The only market tops of history century at which this figure was lower are those of 2000 and 2007, To be able to was 1.4% and as well 2.1%, Respectively. In 1929 high, It truly was 2.9%. The price/eaings relative amount, Making use of four-Quarter looking real eaings, Has improved a good deal, Through 122 to 23. But 23 is in the area of the peak levels of P/E all over the 20th century. Ratios of 6 or 7 occurred at major currency market bottoms during that time. P/E was infinite throughout the final quarter of 2008, When E was limiting. We will see quite some quarters of infinite P/E from 2010 to 2017. The Trading Index (TRIN) is a way of measuring how much volume it takes to move rising stocks vs. Falling over stocks on the NYSE. A new 30-Day moving average of daily closing TRIN books has been sitting at 0.90, The minimum level since June 2007. You need to it has taken a lot of volume to make rising stocks go up vs. Making falling stocks go down within the last 30-Plus investing days. It means that buyers of rising stocks are expending more money to get the same result that sellers of declining stocks are becoming. Usually long stretches of low TRIN exhaust buying power. I always feel obligated to say that indicators such as these do not really pinpoint tus. From October 1998 with the aid of May 2008, Technical indicators repeatedly reached extremes like these and sometimes the market kept going up anyway, In any case for awhile. One of the most fascinating things about the coming decline will be its initial slide down the Slope of Hope. The past ten years have seen an unprecedented sustaining of optimism facing deteriorating financial market and monetary conditions and a deteriorating economy. However the market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, The era of hope is virtually finished. (04/10 EWT; (Robert Prechter, What Do These 8 Technical Indicators Mean for stocks and shares?) EWI has presented this same list of indicators at each juncture since August of 2009 (and still takes care of so) as representing clear signals that the ultimate top is at hand. I am going to reserve dissection of these data points for the following part in this series, But I will point out that while in part set of conditions has proved to be somewhat useful in identifying intermediate and short term declines within a bull trend, As Prechter himself indicates above, But not largely applicable to diagnosing long term market tus. I also called a top in April of 2010 based on an assortment of technical indicators, Including many of the conditions included in EWI's reports, And the culmination of a five wave patte off the March 2010 bottom. And for some time I did hold out the chance that the bear market had retued. I tued bullish in August following July bottom and even more bullish at the September bottom. Prechter presented your next commentary and chart to illustrate the anticipated topping zone for the Dow Jones: In so far as Elliott waves go, The rally since last March is completely normal. Two weeks off the lower of March 2009, Our cash advance Update published an upside target of Dow 10,000. So we knew a big rally was pouring in. The August issue listed the product range for typical retracement as being from 9368 to 11,620. This is a mixture of different, But absolutely nothing we can do about it; Second waves have large quantities of leeway. The representation shown in that issue is reproduced below alongside an update of market prices. The Dow has so far stayed inside of normal range, On the other hand, I expected the rally to peak in the lower half of whatever target range then reverse. In june 2009, In just 5 months, And in december, Following 8 months, I was quite certain the rally was ending. But alteatively of stopping near 10,000 through a 50% retracement, It has grown to a 60% retracement. (Robert Prechter's currency markets Trend Forecast 2010 to 2016) Please note that the "Range for basic retracement" Several way grew from Dow 9,000-10,000 in April of 2009 in which on the way to allow them up so that it will 9368-11,620 through April 2010. I'll also note that with the failure of the January decline to spark a major top, EWI shifted from labeling the rally as a simple ABC correction to a complex mixture correction. Within the report, EWI also introduced the thought of a massive long term head and shoulders top in the Dow: I'll briefly point out here that since the proposed right shoulder has now taken out the left shoulder high the probability that this formation will complete and succeed is tremendously diminished. Here's a picture of the market by using their date: EWI proceeded to call us "Helpful ideas" Of the presupposed Wave 2 modification with its next series of reports: Fibonacci Time bonds Suggest That the Biggest Stock Market Top Formation of All Time Is Ending in 2010 and That a Price Collapse Will Last Six Years, Right 2016. Why a over time Large Collapse Is Likely: Investment-Market bulls and most economists imagine that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking to get either a long sideways bear market a la 1966-1982 or a hyperinflationary be infinity. Our Elliott wave outlook opposes both of these cases. The most likely profile is a stock exchange crash of historic proportions. There exist several reasons why the Dow should decline into three digit territory Cheap Nike Shoes. Plainly, This outlook is extreme beyond all merchants present imagining. But consider how these socionomic expectations combine to indicate much affordable prices: Downward improvements in stock-Market value by 60%, Corporate headquarters worth by 80% and the dollar-Based credit supply by 80% too produce an overall stock-Price sink of 98-99%. I consider a forecast of a 92% decline or more with a triple-Digit Dow be traditionalistic. One of the best things about the coming decline will be its initial slide down the Slope of Hope. The past ten years have seen an unprecedented sustaining of optimism facing deteriorating financial market and monetary conditions and a deteriorating economy. Although market is about to begin its greatest decline ever, The era of hope is virtually finished. Second waves revive optimism. Recall the community after the peak of October 2007. But this time full decline will last four times as long as the 17 months of wave 1, So the operation of dashed hopes will take longer. The fall can also be much deeper, So it's impressive to watch how tenaciously investors, Govement and the Fed cling to hopes regardless of the market continual falls to new lows. The era of hope will end when the very last minute wave is over and the last cycle has topped, Just before the middle of the declining structure. Which means, The wave patte has yet to ensure a new downtrend. But two things strongly claim that a new wave of bear market is in force. First, Volume is constantly on the expand on declines and contract on rallies. Second, Unpredictability has soared since the market peak. These two conditions attend bear markets way more frequently than bull markets. We therefore maintain our opinion that the April 26 high was the end of the bear market rally that were only available in March 2009. (06/10 EWT) As the marketplace bottomed in July and rallied sharply, Prechter announced the end for stocks once again: An April 16, 2010 publication of the Elliott Wave Theorist, Titled Deadly Bearish main issue, Provided our roadmap for the next half dozen years in stock market trading. Stocks are down from there, Yet as the companion issue of May 8 believed, Financial commentary has always been steadfastly bullish. Most people has hailed every rally since April as marking the resumption of a bull market. On the gentlemanly article in the New York Times on July 4, My require a serious resumption of the bear market is being dismissed and ridiculed in the press. This is the way it ought to be because social mood, Which regulates general currency market opinion, Is once again until just last year elevated. As for the forseeable future outlook, Trading stocks rallies of June and July have the earmarks of a 2, Implying that sound 3 down lies directly ahead. Even if it doesn happen immediately, It could occur eventually, So we are maintaining our stance of extreme safety and waiting around the market to issue its verdict. (07/10 EWT) here three of EWI's top picks were in the green and two were underwater: In may, As the uptrend resumed making it its first high, EWI again required a resumption of the bear market: Stock exchange trading has been in an upward correction for over two months. Evidence is very secure that the rally is over. Specific July-August rally takes a wedge shape, Specially in the S and NASDAQ. Wedge shapes are ordinarily terminal. Times getting not are resolved with huge breadth and volume in a continuation of the trend. A surge of that type is the sole thing that can rescue this market from a downside reversal. The latest market rallies have the earmarks of a "Wave 2, Implying that formidable "Wave 3" Likes without delay ahead. (08/10/10 EWT Interim Update) In sept, As the market made a higher low and more rapid to the upside, EWI signthe rightled a functional "Resumption throughout the downtrend, Every limited-Term upward stab in stocks keeps investors hoping that the bear marketplace is finally over. It isn't. As we also outlined last month, August is definitely a big month for trend changes. We were specifically referring to a long line of stock game reversals discussed in EWT and EWFF. As the Dow now abandons the property traversed through this 13-Year leading process, The last vestiges of extreme optimism caused by the Great Bull Market will be wrung out and a dramatic bear market alteration of the social order will pick up speed. On a shorter-term basis, Trading stocks and shares completed the right shoulder of an eight month-Well head-But also-Muscles topping patte on August 9 when the DJIA pushed to 10,720, Essentially matching the cancellations level of the left shoulder at 10,730 on present cards 19. A close within the down-Sloping neckline at 9500 will confirm the culmination of the patte and target the area near 8000 for a measured move. Eventually, The actual March 6, 2009 extremely of 6470, The low point across the entire 13-Year top shown on the top of chart, Will fall in partnership with a significant spike in volatility. The aug 9 high 10,720 in the Dow and 1129 in the S marks tips for sites of Minor wave 2, Which traced out an upward improved flat labeled a-k-t. Wave c put together a wedge, Explaining classic ending patte. By some offers, It is usually at an 11-Year very poor. Overall, The research is strong that the bear market next leg down is underway. (09/10 EWFF) As the markets long-term to climb, Prechter insisted made by the rally was "A counter top-Fashion for move, Via April 16, 2010, At the peak of the new orgy of stock trading game optimism, EWT sent an in-Depth study of methods, Mounds, Technical pattes and indicators titled Deadly Bearish main issue. We hoped for a stair-Step decline from the April high and said that rally through at least 2011 and maybe 2012 would be greeted as the resumption of a bull market. Marriage ceremony of the crash, That had been May 6, The S sealed at 1128. It has not closed above even that much cla for a single day in the four months since May 17. Volume has waned on the rallies this summer, And it has commonly retreated during the September rally to date. This notifies you that upside momentum, Despite purchasers optimism, Is harmful. (09/10 EWT) when they get home of September, Bob Prechter came out on CNBC and, Even as the markets surged in the strongest ninth month rally since the Great a depressive disorder, Sensationally forecast that the Dow would fall to 1000. Seem VIDEO: CNBC 27, 2010--Robert Prechter, President of Elliott Wave you can also use, Tells CNBC he's extremely bearish to buy and expects the Dow to fall below 1,000 over the following six years. At present 3 out the 5 EWI top calls were in the red: EWI inadequately called a C wave top in October 2010, Promoting that a complex "Double three" Patte had passed: The set up is very strong for the beginning of an across-a-Board decline in most market. This rise is no doubt ending as we go to press. Trading stocks and shares is on the cusp of completing a second wave rally high, Having partially retraced the decline that were only available in April. A definitive wave structure shows that the next leg of the ongoing bear market is at hand. And as a result, Design, Price and time have converged to make a case that the beginning of wave 3 down is imminent. (10/10 EWFF) The September issue reiterated that optimism will continue to be dominant for another two years even though markets will be resuming bear trends. This is what month, Optimism has long been too extreme to sustain. In the end breadth today was again very narrow, And the NASDAQ may have created an ending diagonal at today close. Minor wave 3 should carry the S down about 400 points over the next month or two. A drop of that magnitude would close the chapter on the most suitable Shoulder of the great Dow top. (10/10 EWT) plainly, The predicted 400 point SPX drop did not occur and the wave count would be in that case revised to reflect even higher prices. Amount of money. Investors should avoid the rest. Traders should stay short the S and then sell short the euro. If you are a speculator who joined us after January 2010 and are not already short stock exchange trading, Use this chance to take a maximum leveraged short position. If you want to capture a flyer shorting precious metals or certain commodities, Our Metals and everything Special Services track these markets daily. In doing, But unfortunately, Several measures of investor sentiment hit optimists extremes that exceed those recorded at the October 2007 all-Moment Dow high. The DJIA elevate past its April high at 11,258 radically, and Primary wave 2 is still unfolding. The move from March 2009 to April 2010 was wave (A); The decline to 9614 in July was wave (B) and an upswing since this low is wave (C). Durable new Dow recovery high, Each oscillator has so far remained beneath its sept high. These measures taken together paint the answers: Fewer stocks are doing the rally, Which often occurs till you trend reversal. These conditions do not indicate that one should be buying this marketplace. They indicate exactly the other: That you will need to be focusing intently on an impending change of trend from up to down. (11/10 EWFF) Perhaps sensing that the November decline definitely might not begin the long awaited bear market, Prechter considered necessary "a new" Final wave to fill out the presumed top: Regarding April, The Dow commercial Average reached a 61.8% retracement your 2007-009 sink on an intraday basis, And we were sure was it. The S during the time achieved only a 60.8% retracement. Even though double top of 2007, The technical condition of current market was notably worse at the second peak thant the first. Our year, The medical condition is more bearish in November than it was in April. Upside traction is far less now than in April, As evidenced by the bottom 10-Day a/d and upside/downside quantity ratios. At once, Sentiment has frozen to extreme bullishness. On the inside April, We figured that the best percentages of bulls since the all-Time high of October 2007 was enough for the finished of Primary wave 2. It seems that not. In late, The Daily emotion Index for S traders reached 94% bulls, And the American affiliation of Individual Investors poll reached 57.6% bulls. Both readings are the since January 2007, Nearly four in years past. Investors cleveess just reported 56.2% bulls, The best level since the 56.5% because pointing to December 2007. Investors have ingested the Fed argument, And this shows. Perhaps comfortably be managed (along with GM near-Record IPO) is fitting for the peak of the right shoulder of the most popular head shoulders patte ever formed. As far as I related, Nothing has changed excepting the worse. Stock market trading is a terrible value and a technical disaster, And the company has been at all three tops this year. The Fed QE2 announcement will probably prove to be one of high priced signals of all time. Stay smooth. (11/10 EWT) This marked changing your the structure of EWI's wave count, But not its trading job standing up, Which continued to be short. At this point all of EWI's top picks and short calls were underwater except for the April 2010 call: Keep away from, EWI seemed a bit desperate to defend its crumbling benefits, In order to Wikileaks, Junk bonds and sovereign debt to spark the probable collapse: A top in stocks most likely in place just yet, But the credit/liquidity crisis that roiled real estate markets beginning in late 2007 is re-Saying itself. This alignment shows that the next phase of the bear market will encompass nearly all freely traded markets, Just as sooner or later it did in 2008. For options and carries, The rally end should come after yet a second new recovery high. The setting of multi-year, Hopeful extremes in various sentiment measures is already in place. The fear of default on junk debt has waned to a level that also indicates the beginning of the downtu is rapidly approaching Red Bottom Shoes. Is clearly drying up as faith wanes and a steady movement toward an across-The actual-Board decline is going on, Claims EWFF. November 2010 represents a larger version of the identical scenario. Fears of default are over again mounting, In much the same. The current threat moved from Greece in early part of 2010 to Ireland, As the Dow pushed to a don't forget national 5 high. A while back, Your debt fear spread rapidly to Portugal, Italy and Italy. Depending on latest accounts, Right now moving from the periphery to the core, With Belgium coming under the most pressure as well as France. The best wave formation shows that stocks are tracing out Minor wave 4, Which started at the don't forget national 5 highs. Since wave 2 was a clear, crisp pullback, The guideline of alteation suggests that wave 4 should be a sideways correction. A triangular or flat, Both members of the sideways family of modifications, Would match the guideline. Throughout near-Term cases, Wave b involving 4 is complete, Or very just so. He even comes close Wikileaks next Megaleak to the e-Mails that poured right out the Enron trial, As stocks slipped lacking in 2001 and 2002. Bear in mind, The coming through bear market in mood is huge, So it not as if the media needs evidence of. On december 22, The New York Times had been asking, Wall Street Justify Its everyday living? A soon after New Yorker headline seemed to answer: Of What property investment funds Bankers Do Is Socially Worthless. After a period of social adulation, It will only take an incremental lowering risk assumption to tip the scales against the markets. Our view remains that this environment is made for eliminating any and all junk debt from one portfolio, As deflation will ravage everything but the finist quality bonds. Tax exempt municipal bonds means that the trend toward increasing distress is sometimes already underway. (12/10 EWFF) As the year wound to a close with out sign of an end to the bull trend, Prechter seemed to run out of bearish items compliment his thesis of a decline to Dow 1000, Vaguely asserting the start of a "Be conceed into cash, To summarize the position, The technical condition of the stock market works with an approaching resumption of the Supercycle-Degree bear market it is in the Elliott wave model. By definition a lot of traders, Business, Consultants, Money professionals and economists view a bearish outcome as remote. Simple fact investors are intensely bullish on stocks, Silver and gold coins, Everything and junk bonds, There has all the same been a stealth move toward holding cash. (12/10 EWT) download VIDEO: Kevin Prechter on CNBC, December 30, 2010: "Not a bear one of them" The New Year didn't do anything to dampen EWI's enthusiasm for a disastrous future. Even more, They known as the top: Can you feel the entertainment toward stocks as 2011 arrives? This situation palpable. This sentiment extreme combined with a complete wave structure places trading stocks on the cusp of a major decline. There a good chance the New Year will start with a bang across the breadth of the real estate markets. Check out this front page headline from can be 17 USA Today. Industry. Conform to-Up headlines in your money section added: 2011, It facts to consider about Stocks and Top Experts Agree: New Year being confident for Stocks. Seems that not a single major money manager interviewed by the financial press is telling in which 2011 will be a down year be clear: These firms and people highly talented and successful. But an audience is an audience, No matter what much talentnd money it may possess. 90% or higher) declare that a short-Term top is developing or has been given. That push is mainly played out as we go to press; In the event that complete, It should can caused a historic downside reversal. Minor wave 5 of advanced wave (C) started on November 9 at 10,929.30 withinside the DJIA. Fifth waves are quitting waves, That mean wave 5 will complete the rally from 9614.30, Ones July low. And the end of the advance from July will mark the very best of wave 2, The overall Primary-Degree bear current rally that began in March 2009. A top of this magnitude would be entirely similar to the multi-Year extremes in emotion and the waning upside momentum. (01/11 EWFF) irrespective of a continued bull move in January, Bob Prechter forecast that 2011 would see a bear market: 2011 Should Be a Down Year over the Board: On the heels of record expectations in two dozen markets, The year 2011 is developing to be a down year in every popular investment. This has a down-Sloping neckline the 2009 low is below the 2002 low expected a lower peak on an ideal shoulder. Worth reading on the left shoulder in January 2000 is 11,750, And benefit reading so far, On present cards 5, Happens to be 11,743. Then Primary wave 1 lead on December 31; On this occasion Primary wave 2 may have topped on January 5. (01/11 EWT) Into early january, As the property foreign exchange market closed at new rally highs, EWI remained invested in a nearby rally top: While stocks have open their push, The structure of the rise definitely seems to be a clear Elliott wave that is terminal. Here this time around, The Wave Principle and in times past high optimism are the primary reasons. After impulse waves down ended keep away from 2008 through March 2009, World stock indexes as well as goods, Oil and many real estate markets have rallied in a synchronized (A)-(B)-(C) patte that is why hallmark of an Elliott wave correction. All around, Measures of the market breadth and upward momentum remain similar to the wave interpretation shown on the weekly S chart. The following thursday NYSE advance/decline ratio was strong at 4.6:1, But there would be no follow-By means of, As breadth was negative next week. You are able to, This week new recovery high in the Dow Industrials was not confirmed by the Dow carry Average, Which made its closing high on economy is shown 13, Thereby accelerating a bearish Dow Theory non-Evidence. Not surprisingly, And this many others are doing. In our practice, These questions tend to intensify near market highs when we are too far ahead of critical tu. Similar opinions hit EWI email inbox in 2007, As the Dow carries and many secondary indexes were topping out in July. The blue chips held will not require October, But the ensuing decline into the first quarter of 2009 developed into historic. We should have done a better job of honing in on the beginning of the tu, Even so, As the concentration of the decline in 2008 showed, It critical to be safely out of the way of this bear market. (02/11 EWFF) Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has maintained a Primary and Intermediate degree short position finding comfort at least September 2010 (probably much earlier). At this time all of EWI's top calls or short concepts are deeply underwater: CONCLUSIONS Here I will try to examine just some of the problems of trading methodology which have contributed to the disastrous performance of EWI during the period under review. TRADING constraint AND STOP LOSSES: EWI appears to exercise a great lack of trading discipline. At no point does EWI instruct its disciples on stops, Stop levels or alteate scenarios which could call its bearish assumptions into question. This defies the standard, Middle, Generally accepted rules of trading and risk govement. EWI assumes that it is going to be correct due to an infallible "Testing" And that all may ultimately be made right and whole when "The experienced One" Hits the property foreign exchange market. This is merely the mentality of the amateur speculator. Mentioned this, I will state: often, In the end all bearish errors in analysis and timing may be forgiven when and if the markets do go into a deflationary bear market. This is a prospect. It is however not the current message of the market and the mere chance for an eventual bear market does not absolve the analyst and the trader from maintaining discipline. Not even the great Jesse Livermore himself could defy the rules of risk and management of their bucks. It was his failure to keep fast to his own trading principles designed to cure. which led to his ultimate demise and suicide. Around "Elliott Wave law, Robert Prechter discusses the risks of falling into fuzy analysis: Bolton used to say that one of the most difficult things he had to lea was to believe what he saw. If the analyst will never believe what he sees, He almost certainly read into his analysis what he thinks should be there for some other reason. After all this, His count becomes very summary. Fuzy analysis is dangerous and destroys the value of any market approach. What the Wave Principle provides is an objective means of assessing the relative chances of possible future paths for the market. Ever before, Two or more valid wave understanding are usually acceptable by the rules of the Wave Principle. The rules are highly specific and keep the number of valid choices to a minimum. Among the valid opportunities, The analyst will normally regard as preferred the interpretation that satisfies the largest number of guidelines, And so forth. As a consequence, Competent analysts applying the things of the Wave Principle objectively should usually agree on the order of probabilities for various possible outcomes at any particular time. That order can usually be stated with assurance. Let not anyone assume, But nevertheless, That certainty about the order of probabilities is equivalent to certainty about one specific outcome. Under only the rarest of circumstances does the analyst ever know exactly what the market will work. One should be aware and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific outcome will be wrong some of the time. (p.42) I'm in full agreement with the maxim being expressed here. Regretably, Wish Livermore, It would appear that Prechter is engaged in a catastrophic failure to apply his own rules to the current market. There has been a subjective resolution of the inevitability of a deflationary depression. Since no alteate count is presented EWI has effectually "Bet the plantation" Without a stop loss or any defined risk management parameters on a crash that may never come or may only come in a time frame so far far from the present that maintaining any current short position would prove disastrous. Some may claim that EWI's real position is the security of cash, But as I have discussed here they have clearly advocated 200% leveraged short positions on at least three occasions and have clearly called "best" On a smaller amount 8. When a top or bottom is clearly called it is also a call to take a position on the the call. There isn't evidence that they ever called for those positions to be stopped out; In fact comes with a EWFF maintains a long standing Primary and Intermediate short call. its "Safety of income" Defense does not need to wash. TOP crucial: EWI also consistently engages in essential amateur of all trading practices: Top web site. This choice from the Wall Street classic "Recollections of a Stock Operator" Illustrates Jesse Livermore's painful exposure to top picking: I was well-nigh twenty-Seven years. I seemed to be at the game twelve years. But the first time I traded as a result of crisis that was still to come I found that I had been using a telescope. Between my first glimpse of the storm cloud and the time for cashing in on the big break the stretch was evidently so much greater than I had considered that I began to wonder whether I really saw what I thought I saw so clearly. We had had many waings and incredible ascensions in call-Money yields. Still some of the great financiers talked hopefully at least to newspaper reporters and the ensuing rallies in trading shares gave the lie to the calamity howlers. Was I repay or payback wrong in being bearish or merely temporarily wrong in having begun to sell short too soon? I made the decision that I began too soon, But that website owners couldn't help it. Then industry began to sell off. That was my alteative. I sold all i should, After stocks rallied again, To quite a dangerous. It flushed me out Nike Air Jordan. There' was right and busted! I tell you it was incredible. What went down was this: I looked ahead and saw a big pile of greenbacks. From it stuck a sign. It possessed "Feel free, For it, In huge text emails. Alongside it stood a cart with "Lawrence Livingston Trucking organization" Brushed on its side. I had a brandname-New shovel in me. There seemed to be not another soul in sight, So I had no level of contest in the gold-Shoveling, Which is one former wonderful seeing the dollar-Heap earlier than others. Those who might have seen it if they had stopped to look were just then looking at baseball games instead, Or motoring or buying houses to be paid for employing very dollars that I saw. That was the beginning that I had seen big money ahead, And I naturally started toward it while on the road. Before I could get to the dollar-Pile my wind went back on me and I fell to the floor. The pile of dollars was there, But I had lost the spade, And the wagon vanished. So much for sprints too soon! I was too eager to sway myself that I had seen real dollars and not a mirage. I recognised, And knew i always saw. For the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-lot. I need walked and not sprinted. That is what actually transpired. I didn't wait to determine set up time was right for plunging on the bear side. On the one occasion when I will have invoked the aid of my tape-Reading i did not do it. That is how I came to lea that even when one is properly bearish at the beginning of a bear market it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-Shooting. In this sort of case Livermore was ultimately proven correct in his assessment that the market would eventually go into a deep bear market. He was capable of making up his losses when his timing improved because he had controlled risk by using stop losses. But what may have happened if Livermore, Like Prechter perfect now, Refused to take care of risk, Constant to average down a losing position, And had lastly been wrong in his assessment of market conditions? His name would be unknown to us today because he can be never met with his great trading success. Top pickers think they are smarter than the market and so possessed of market knowledge that they don't really need to wait for the actual trend of the market to change before shorting against the trend. Livermore, Like all great and astute masters of market trading major and discipline, Teaches us to develop a criteria for a fame of a trend change in price before committing capital to the other side of the market. There are many different systems which you can use. One is the Elliott Wave function. Let's tips from "Elliott Wave standards" From this matter: Most other strategies to market analysis, Whether mandatory, Electronic or cyclical, Have no great way of forcing a change of opinion if you are wrong. The Wave key, Compared, Provides built-In objective method for varying your mind. Since Elliott Wave analysis is to match price pattes, A patte identified as having been finished is either over or it isn't. If the forex market changes direction, The analyzer has caught the tu. If this marketplace moves beyond what the apparently completed patte allows, Concluding is wrong, And any funds at risk can be reclaimed proper. Investors using the Wave Principle can prepare themselves emotionally for such outcomes through the continual updating of the second best interpretation, Sometimes the "Different count, Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in likelihood, The ongoing maintenance of alteative wave counts is the central part of investing with it. When there is no clearly preferred model, The analyst must hold back until the count resolves itself, This means, When you need that "Sweep it under the rug before the air clears, As Bolton encouraged. Usually, Next few moves will clarify the status of previous waves by revealing their position in the patte of the next higher degree. When subsequent waves clarify the image, The probability that a level is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. Of the many methods to stock market analysis, The Elliott Wave precept, Inside your view, Offers the best tool for distinguishing market tus as they are approached. If you retain an hourly chart, The fifth of the fifth of the fifth in a primary trend alerts you within hours of a major change in direction by market trends. It is an exilerating experience to pinpoint a tu, And the Wave Principle is the only approach that will often provide the opportunity to do so. Elliott may not be the perfect formulation since trading stocks and shares is part of life and no formula can enclose it or express it completely. (pp.42-43) Here Prechter correctly cites the power of Elliott Wave in providing an objective criteria for spotting the chance of the end of a trend before a trend change has actually occurred. It is a strategic advantage for the Elliott Wave trader, One which Livermore could possibly have no doubt embraced to help him avoid running at the pile of money "Too early, It shouldn't, Nevertheless, Be tued into a permission slip to get familiar with wanton top picking. Identifying the opportunity of a market tu and betting capital on a tu before it has happened are two entirely different things. You are intelligent preparation; The second reason is amateurish top picking. Any technical signal of a trend change, Plus Elliott Wave counts, Can be wrong, Early or simple wrong. An organised trader waits for confirmation of the trend change before risking capital on what might otherwise be a countertrend move. A minimum verification would be a trend line break. A second verification might be a retest of the trend line break and a lower high. An additional, More significant confirmation would be a five wave move against the prior trend followed by a three wave move back to retrace a very important portion of the first move for a lower high. A nice the trader's entry point for the new, Thankful trend. The prior high gives you the stop loss point. This is not brain surgery. It's Trading 101. Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave online have picked a top on at least eight occasions since March 2009 and completely ignored these basics with negative consequence. At the April 2010 top I was conscious that a five wave advance was coming to its end. There were a number of technical indicators which suggested a considerable correction was due. These two factors led me to exit my long positions on strength in April and begin looking for possibility to tu intermediate term bearish. On a trendline opportunity, I sold out. Currently, My alteate bearish count told me that there was some possibility that the bear market would resume and so I began to consentrate my short position as potentially seed money for a much longer term move. For a variety of reasons I tued bullish again in August and many more bullish in September. I still maintain an alteate bearish count which is basically the same as the EWI count. Let's guess, Just for the sake of argument, That I approached the April 2010 top with a primary bearish count and based on that EW analysis I was getting yourself ready for a major top and trend change. How might I have approached that in a way might have maintained trading discipline and preserved capital? Let us check a chart: In January 2010 I may have some sold short the apparent C wave rising wedge on a break of the lower rail of the uptrend (in fact I did, But only as medium difficulty term play). I might have covered that short position when the three wave move from the top failed to make a five wave bearish impulsive decline or I might have covered at the breakeven point (indicated by the first green arrow). Still self assured in my bearish analysis, I might have figured a trendline break and break from a topping patte in April would be a good shorting opportunity (indeed I did sell that break short as indicated earlier). I might have concluded that the August high was time to add to my short position as a potential Wave 2 corrected 50% of the Wave 1 decline. When that decline failed to generate a bearish impulsive five wave move down I might have covered the August short on the trendline break or at the breakeven point. And hopefully, I will have covered the April short at breakeven in November. On the second puncture of the April high in December, I probably have gone long since the trade setup had failed. I would have been verified wrong in my position by the market but would have lost only time and opportunity and no capital. This is the distinction between the use of basic trade and risk management and top picking with no stops. Just for the sake of comparison, Below is a chart of my BullBear Trading SPX trading calls for 2010: During most of time period there were far more entries and exits than I would have liked but, Given the ultimate volatility and that for a time the direction of the trend was in doubt, I shifted to medium difficulty and short term trading orientation until the September bottom. Intelligent HUBRIS: The kind of performance documented here becomes possible when a trader or analyst tus the market into an ego driven perceptive exercise. Market analysis is not a game to prove that you are smarter than all of those other pack or smarter than the market itself. I find Prechter's commentary and promotional propaganda saturated with entirely unwarranted egoic smugness that can only be drrcor to the goal of staying on the right side of the markets. It's that sort of mentalilty which underlies and creates the emotive potential for a lack of trading discipline and a consistent practice of top picking. In coming installments of this series I will analyze the data and the methodology utilized by Elliott Wave Inteational in the operation of its trading history from March 2009 to present. You'll get that timely, Incisive, Unbiased stock and financial market trading and investment capital technical analysis and commentary daily.

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